For months now, it looks as if all we have encountered are destructive headlines. However once we lower by means of the noise and have a look at the information, the story for the primary half of 2023 was easy: the markets and financial system did higher than many anticipated them to.
Will the identical maintain for the second half of the 12 months? We have a look forward in our Midyear Outlook.
Expectations Vs. Actuality
Regardless of dangers—just like the potential U.S. default on its debt—and worries about an impending recession, hiring remained sturdy, shoppers and companies stayed assured, and the financial system grew. Did it develop extra slowly than final 12 months? Certain. Nonetheless, all market indices had been up, company earnings beat expectations, and monetary circumstances remained regular.
And what about inflation? It managed to drag again, as did longer-term rates of interest. After elevating short-term charges at one of many quickest paces in a long time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) adjusted its language in Could to recommend a pause could also be so as. None of this could have occurred had development remained eventually 12 months’s stage. That slower development ought to assist help the markets and financial system within the second half of the 12 months.
The Highway Forward
Whereas the debt ceiling was resolved with no disaster, the banking system stays underneath stress. The U.S. relationship with China is rocky, and the struggle in Ukraine continues. We’ve practically as many dangers now as we did in January. Add in slower development, and there is much less cushion for the financial system and markets to fall again on.
The dangers are actual, however so are the positives. Inflation is down. The Fed might pause. And the worldwide state of affairs, whereas worrying, is not any extra worrying now than it has been for the previous 12 months or so. Mixed with sturdy job development and client confidence, we get an financial system that appears very like it did initially of the 12 months. And that financial system proceeded to outperform. With low expectations, it could properly achieve this once more.
For extra on our expectations for the U.S. financial system and the fairness and stuck revenue markets, learn our 2023 Midyear Market and Financial Outlook, accessible now.
Reducing By the Noise
The headlines inform one story. However does the information inform one other? Obtain our Midyear Outlook to seek out out.